The Persian Gulf Arms Race

[Joshua]

I was just wondering, if by any chance , some radical ant-Western group takes over the UAE or for that matter for some reason somebody really offend the UEA, how will the West react if their own weapon systems are turned on them?

The Persian Gulf Arms Race
April 29, 2009: The UAE (United Arab Emirates) has become the third largest importer of weapons in the world, and the largest in the Middle East. The other two bigger spenders worldwide are India and China. In the Middle East, the UAE imports 50 percent more weapons than Israel. The UAE is a confederation of small Arab states at the southern end of the Persian Gulf. With a population of only 5.5 million, and large oil and gas deposits, the emirates have a per-capita income of $43,000. Thus the UAE has a lot to defend, and an increasingly belligerent neighbor just across the Gulf. The UAE controls one side the entrance to the Gulf (the Straits of Hormuz). Iran is on the other end, and both nations dispute ownership of some islands in the middle.

The UAE wants to defend itself from potential Iranian aggression. To that end, they are spending $7 billion on American THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) anti-missile systems to protect itself against the growing arsenal of Iranian ballistic missiles. The UAE is also buying lots of aircraft, including 75 U.S. F-16s and 50 French Mirage 2000-9 fighters. There are also ten U.S. C-103J and four C-17 transports on order. Then there are munitions, 1,300 American laser and GPS guided bombs. Several warships are also on the way.

The UAE is also spending nearly a billion dollars to put up four radar satellites. The GulfSAR (synthetic aperture radar) satellites will use an orbit that will cover an area 43 degrees north and south of the Equator. The UAE is also spending billion on armored vehicles, artillery and other equipment for their ground forces. More billions being spent on bases, training, support and logistics.

Iran is spending less that 15 percent of what the UAE is. That's mainly because Iran is under several arms embargoes, and is cash poor because the religious dictatorship in charge is financially inept and corrupt. But the Iranians have a long (over 3,000 years) reputation for aggressive behavior, and dominating the region. Going retro on the neighbors is growing more popular with Iranians, especially if the neighbors are rich and Iran could use the money. At least that's how the Arabs on the other side of the Persian Gulf see it.

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[Nomad]

I was just wondering, if by any chance , some radical ant-Western group takes over the UAE or for that matter for some reason somebody really offend the UEA, how will the West react if their own weapon systems are turned on them?

The UAE has a pretty sound economy right now. A lot of industrialization was undertaken during the last 60 years, mainly in freighting, oil production and lately tourism. Whenever you find an area with decent infrastructure and a fairly liberal (socioeconomically speaking) society, you won't find a penchant for fanaticism. The UAE does not have the same issues that plague the KSA, nor do they have the economical woes of their Iranian neighbors.

A solid relationship, both politically and economically with the USA is of interest to them. The motivation of course being purely self-serving as the US has in the past shown it will not let other nations in that part of the world bully smaller countries it has interests in. Therefore I do not believe that the UAE would run the risk to have its infrastructure and recently acquired technology destroyed by promoting an openly hostile position towards the US or other western countries. Though there is no great sympathy for the US's military position on Iraq, the economic and security benefits in place by having a strategic alliance with America outweigh the ideological issues arising with the occupation of a muslim nation.

This is all just my opinion based on observations of the region over the last five years.

[rgrokelley]

I was just wondering, if by any chance , some radical ant-Western group takes over the UAE or for that matter for some reason somebody really offend the UEA, how will the West react if their own weapon systems are turned on them?

The UAE has a pretty sound economy right now. A lot of industrialization was undertaken during the last 60 years, mainly in freighting, oil production and lately tourism. Whenever you find an area with decent infrastructure and a fairly liberal (socioeconomically speaking) society, you won't find a penchant for fanaticism. The UAE does not have the same issues that plague the KSA, nor do they have the economical woes of their Iranian neighbors.

A solid relationship, both politically and economically with the USA is of interest to them. The motivation of course being purely self-serving as the US has in the past shown it will not let other nations in that part of the world bully smaller countries it has interests in. Therefore I do not believe that the UAE would run the risk to have its infrastructure and recently acquired technology destroyed by promoting an openly hostile position towards the US or other western countries. Though there is no great sympathy for the US's military position on Iraq, the economic and security benefits in place by having a strategic alliance with America outweigh the ideological issues arising with the occupation of a muslim nation.

This is all just my opinion based on observations of the region over the last five years.

Back in the 1990s their chief of staff of the army in Abu Dhabi was a former SF CPT. When we went there to train with them, their big focus was taking back Abu Musa island, in the middle of the Straits of Hormuz. Iran had taken it from them. I wonder if they took it back since then?

[Jim]

The Gulf of Arabia has been experiencing an arms race for some time. I spent some time with the Saudi Arabian National Guard Modernization Program.

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