Recession?

[lusus]

The recession is here. Our economy is in the shitter and will stay there for quite sometime. The government figures get a bit of the curve if you ask me. All I know is that everything is more expensive and people can't afford to buy it. The avg family requires both spouses to work just to stay above the poverty line.

I am not wrong on this. Having never met you I would say you have a college degree, probably post grad too. you invest heavy and smartly.
You are a strong supporter of Bush and will vote McCain this yr.

Here's where we agree. Inflation is here and will probably get worse. The economy is slowing. Things are tighter than they were 6 months ago. The Fed is in a box.

I do this stuff for a living, so I usually try to keep my mouth shut on these topics because people get invested in their own ideas (me included). But when I see good Rangers draw bad conclusions from data sometimes I can't stop myself.

We are not on the verge of economic collapse. Things have been waaaaaay worse in the past, its just that Americans have had it so good for so long we got forgot what bad really is. Lets hope we don't relearn it.

One thing you got right, I'll vote for McCain. National Security, Supreme Court judges and economic policy are my primary filters, and I lean right on these issues.

[lusus]

---
I do hope the facts that are being published are wrong, but the trend seems clear -- a heavy downturn in our economy.

Brute, you seem like a good dude. But if the 'facts' referenced in your sentence above is still focused on the non-borrowed reserves bullshit I can't help you. It is a total non-starter. Seriously, its meaningless.

Now, recognizing the housing market for what it is (awful), what other trends are you talking about? Give me specific economic trends that are signaling a heavy downturn in the economy.

Please don't start with unemployment unless you can argue that the current 5.1% rate at this point in the cycle is way worse than the historically higher levels we have seen in EVERY time frame since WWII. To that point, when I first learned about it the theory was that 6% was the rate of structural unemployment, meaning you could never get below it. Guess that was wrong.

[BruteForce]

These are the facts I'm referencing:

- Housing/Mortgage situation and record number of foreclosures
- Increase in unemployment (yes, its not massive yet, but has potential)
- Valuation of the dollar (or lack thereof)
- Fuel, food costs (sure sign of inflation) <and what will prove to be a domino effect>
- Record amount of consumer debt (in $), as indicated by the Fed. (granted, not much of an indicator)
- Massive mounting US Govn't debt (owed to foreign countries)
- GDP is down

All these individually amount of nothing, but together could create quite a cascading effect on the overall economy.

I'll defer to you as more of an expert than I, but I'm being optimistically pessimistic that it won't become as dire as it may (or could).

At any rate, this has been an interesting conversation. Multiple viewpoints and opinions backed up by contrasting facts (and opinions).

Thanks for the discourse thus far. I'm certain the next few months will be more of an indicator.

[lusus]

Turn off the TV, put down the newspaper. Great example is that fucked up AP article posted earlier. Read this guy -

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Privat ... icture.htm

I'm sure that link won't work (because I don't know how to paste it right) so go to briefing.com, pick the investor option.

Go to 'Our view', then go to 'the big picture'. Look for the archives. Read 'The math behind good and bad GDP'. I also recommend the one above, which should be 'The mathematical facts about payroll trends'.

Those articles will do a better job than I can of explaining.
As an investor, you need to put new money to work averaging down your high quality positions before the media bothers to let you know they were wrong.

[BruteForce]

As an investor, you need to put new money to work averaging down your high quality positions before the media bothers to let you know they were wrong.

As for investments, I assume you have money in the Stock Market (Bonds, Stocks, CD's, etc).

How have yours fared these past few months?

I have a small handful that have done well (Oracle, ADP and a few others), but the remainder have been in the -20% range (SBUX, VGENX, AZN (OUCH!) )

Regarding Payroll and GDP, interesting article (your link worked fine).

[RRDTm3]

The recession is here. Our economy is in the shitter and will stay there for quite sometime. The government figures get a bit of the curve if you ask me. All I know is that everything is more expensive and people can't afford to buy it. The avg family requires both spouses to work just to stay above the poverty line.

I am not wrong on this. Having never met you I would say you have a college degree, probably post grad too. you invest heavy and smartly.
You are a strong supporter of Bush and will vote McCain this yr.

Here's where we agree. Inflation is here and will probably get worse. The economy is slowing. Things are tighter than they were 6 months ago.

I do this stuff for a living.
One thing you got right, I'll vote for McCain.

So I am right on you being well educated too?

Honestly, I have nothing for retirement except my Army stuff, I am fucked!

[BruteForce]

Honestly, I have nothing for retirement except my Army stuff, I am fucked!

Start investing at least 6% of any income you have now in a 401k and/or stocks/bonds. At present, Bonds/CD's are a better bet than Stocks, but you'll need to suck it up and put away the cash to ensure you have some money for retirement.

Eating Top Ramen at age 75 would SUCK! :D

[Horned Toad]

[quote="RRDTm3]
Honestly, I have nothing for retirement except my Army stuff, I am fucked![/quote]

Better get busy with the rockstar thing in a hurry then

[RRDTm3]

[

As soon as you learn how to quote motherfucker's right I will!

[Horned Toad]

[

as soon as ya'll quit multi quoting four posts in a row I wont have to try and chop out relevant parts will I
bitch

go make another video

[IntelToad]

These are the facts I'm referencing:

- Housing/Mortgage situation and record number of foreclosures
- Increase in unemployment (yes, its not massive yet, but has potential)
- Valuation of the dollar (or lack thereof)
- Fuel, food costs (sure sign of inflation) <and what will prove to be a domino effect>
- Record amount of consumer debt (in $), as indicated by the Fed. (granted, not much of an indicator)
- Massive mounting US Govn't debt (owed to foreign countries)
- GDP is down

All these individually amount of nothing, but together could create quite a cascading effect on the overall economy.

I'll defer to you as more of an expert than I, but I'm being optimistically pessimistic that it won't become as dire as it may (or could).

At any rate, this has been an interesting conversation. Multiple viewpoints and opinions backed up by contrasting facts (and opinions).

Thanks for the discourse thus far. I'm certain the next few months will be more of an indicator.

Okay, let's take your points one at a time-

1) Housing foreclosures at record levels- Of course they are. Loose credit standards and low interest rates led to record levels of speculation. Look at the markets with the largest percentages of foreclosure and you'll find the pattern- Miami, Denver, Phoenix etc.
2) Increase in unemployment- What increase ? And while you're at it, compare the unemployment statistics of the US with the workers paradise of the members of the EU.
3) Valuation of the Dollar- I'll partially concede that point. The dollar is getting it's assed kicked. Bad for importers into the US, exporters are loving it.
4) Fuel costs- I'll concede that too to the extent that the government can do precisely jack about influencing the price of oil.
5) Record amount of consumer debt- So what ? Debt is leverage. You never heard creditors bitching when remittances were on time in the 80's and they were making record profits.
6) US debt to foreign countries isn't the problem - US debt to US citizens (social security etc. ) is absolutely crippling. That should be the main focus of your anger. Mine too.

[Flesh Thorn]

High ammo prices and availability is pissing me off.

[rgrokelley]

Obviously we are about to go into another Great Depression. The Dow closes above 12,500 or so each day. This is incredible! We are doomed!

The Unemployment rate is around 5%!! We need to get cracking on that and try to keep up with Germany's rate of 7.6%. So basically there will soon be soup lines, since for every 100 people who want a job, 5 can't get one (or are unable to get off the couch to look for one)!

Gas prices are incredibly high, and I most likely won't be able to eat in a few months. My God! Did you know that I pay almost $10 more for a full tank of gas now than I did last year!!

On a serious note, folks who are not historians are easily shocked and amazed by what may seem an impending crisis. Whether it is a recession (and I did read some reporters stating that we are about to go into another Great Depression), global warming, bird flu, etc. If you look at what has happened in the past, this is pretty tame.

The Dollar is doing terrible around the world, especially in Europe. Just imagine if the EEU had to rely on its own money for all of their defense. At this time they have a mighy army parked in their front yard (United States) and it doesn't cost them a dime. As it is right now they can use all that money that would normally go to building an army, and use it elsewhere.

Doesn't all this hand wringing sound exactly like the early 1980s, when reporters at that time predicted that our economy would crash and we would be relying on the great Japanese economy? The dollar was pitiful when compared to the yen. Japanese businessmen were buying up stock in American and owning huge portions of our business. However, what is Japan like now? Who came out on top?

Last night I heard a story about how China is buying up huge amounts of stock in the United States. This is key indicator. No nation, or business, will put such a huge investment in an economy that is predicted to crumble. They put their dollars in the U.S. because they know that no matter what low points we have, in the long run we are one of the most stable economies in the world.

Look at the DOW. Just a few years ago there was much celebration due to that fact that the DOW had broken the mythical 10,000 mark. Today if the DOW went down to 10,000 the reporters would be predicting panic in the streets. But we know reporters never do anything to sensationalize a story and scare folks... right?

[Jim]

I remain an optimist.

[smokn38]

This time around using the housing market, and the amount of foreclosures is a little misleading. The current housing market, and its problems lies squarely on the shoulder of the banks that wrote the mortgages and those consumers that bought more house than they could afford because the bank told them they could afford it. I know people that went out when the getting was good and purchased big houses. I knew they could never afford it, but that interest only 2 year ARM looked damn good. Now the bank owns the house. Now they want my dollars to bail them out. Fuck em. Poor planning on their part is not an emergency on my part.