A dear friend, who is an awesome stats person and is the son of the former head of counter intelligence (not US) is in as well.
You might get a sweet little group to work on this. Academics love a challenge.
Cheers;
DrD
Mathematics of war
Moderator: Site Admin
Re: Mathematics of war
Joshua;
A dear friend, who is an awesome stats person and is the son of the former head of counter intelligence (not US) is in as well.
You might get a sweet little group to work on this. Academics love a challenge.
Cheers;
DrD
A dear friend, who is an awesome stats person and is the son of the former head of counter intelligence (not US) is in as well.
You might get a sweet little group to work on this. Academics love a challenge.
Cheers;
DrD
~Black Raven~
Re: Mathematics of war
Dear group,
I’m coming to my wife’s defense. She did predict the fall of the stock market (twice) and a 9-11 event. Once after 2000 and second after the sub-prime (housing) bubble burst. The 9-11 event I’ll get to at the end.
First, the extraordinary run-up in internet/technology stocks (asset demand bubble) prior to 2000 because corporations and governments thought computer clocks would not function after 2000. They in mass went out and purchased new computers and software, not spreading out their purchases over time as is normally the case. After 2000, DrD thought stocks would start to slow down and fall because corporations and governments had satisfied their equipment investments. They call this a refresh cycle and no one needed to refresh their equipment (3-7 yrs).
After this time elapsed, corporations needed to refresh their equipment and the cycle started all over again. And they did slowly start to purchase their equipment normally. But then the asset bubble became housing because interest rates and the loan process were corrupted. Loans to anyone with a heart beat. Anyone with a brain could see this had to end and end badly (who’s the last one holding the bag).
It’s not rocket science, its common sense.
Now to the 9-11 event, again common sense. Terrorists had bombed the towers earlier in the decade and then the USS Cole. There were other attacks throughout the world but the terrorist had the run of the place. Not much was done. But the events were picking up speed over time. So, it seamed logical that another attack would take place soon on US soil given our weak response; what did the terrorists have to fear, not the US and not the rest of the world body. DrD knew it would take place against us; just not the when or the how, other than it might get headlines. The two events (lack of purchasing and the attack) just reinforced the stock market crash.
She does have predictive modeling for a host of events. I/we changed our 401ks to all bonds early in 2008. So, what do I predict going forward? When the corporations start to add on temp workers and spot lumber prices start to raise the bull market will start. There are economic reasons why this is so.
It’s common sense and it’s modeled.
Yours truly,
Shark
I’m coming to my wife’s defense. She did predict the fall of the stock market (twice) and a 9-11 event. Once after 2000 and second after the sub-prime (housing) bubble burst. The 9-11 event I’ll get to at the end.
First, the extraordinary run-up in internet/technology stocks (asset demand bubble) prior to 2000 because corporations and governments thought computer clocks would not function after 2000. They in mass went out and purchased new computers and software, not spreading out their purchases over time as is normally the case. After 2000, DrD thought stocks would start to slow down and fall because corporations and governments had satisfied their equipment investments. They call this a refresh cycle and no one needed to refresh their equipment (3-7 yrs).
After this time elapsed, corporations needed to refresh their equipment and the cycle started all over again. And they did slowly start to purchase their equipment normally. But then the asset bubble became housing because interest rates and the loan process were corrupted. Loans to anyone with a heart beat. Anyone with a brain could see this had to end and end badly (who’s the last one holding the bag).
It’s not rocket science, its common sense.
Now to the 9-11 event, again common sense. Terrorists had bombed the towers earlier in the decade and then the USS Cole. There were other attacks throughout the world but the terrorist had the run of the place. Not much was done. But the events were picking up speed over time. So, it seamed logical that another attack would take place soon on US soil given our weak response; what did the terrorists have to fear, not the US and not the rest of the world body. DrD knew it would take place against us; just not the when or the how, other than it might get headlines. The two events (lack of purchasing and the attack) just reinforced the stock market crash.
She does have predictive modeling for a host of events. I/we changed our 401ks to all bonds early in 2008. So, what do I predict going forward? When the corporations start to add on temp workers and spot lumber prices start to raise the bull market will start. There are economic reasons why this is so.
It’s common sense and it’s modeled.
Yours truly,
Shark
A Co. FIST 3/75
89-92
89-92
