Mathematics of war

[Joshua]

Not the best place to post this. Maybe the mods. can open a "technical" part to post items like this.

For those who are not afraid of Maths or statistics, here is a interesting video on the "predictability" of war.

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[DrD]

I work in the area of probability of war and cyber war, and analyzing specific cyber attack vectors. It is an intriguing topic to study, and there is much work still to be done.

DrD

[Joshua]

I agree DrD. If I understand this video correctly, the formule they compiled can show-up in what phase the enemy army is i.e. a guerilla army or a more structured conventional type army. Once you know this information you can do all kinds of things, like adapting your own combat style to counter their combat style, or develop certain types of equipment to fit the particular fighting style.

Yes I know you can “look outside the window” to understand the type of warfare the enemy army is conducting, but now, it appears, you can proof it by scientific measures.

[RangerBob275]

I have a Captain who thinks if he can put something into a spreadsheet, he can understand it. FAIL

[DrD]

Joshua-

I suppose one can try to prove warfare issues through science. However, I find that when people tend to do that they miss out on the capability of prediction. That is, they are so worried about the data that they fail to understand the behavior behind it.

What this speaker failed to really delve into was *why* this model worked. If one researches the model he is showing... then there would be a certain hand slap to the head that would occur. I mean no disrespect to his work, btw. It is very nice. But, the model he is showing conforms fairly nicely to the behavior he is describing. So, why not go there more forcefully in the analysis?

How does one use this in warfare, then? Prediction, expected vulnerability, potential for loss of life... this is not just a pure data issue. It is strategy: understanding the enemy's strengths and weaknesses... contemplating their moves against our weaknesses. Pinpointing how to bring them down with the least effort. Elegance in combination with brute force. Hard core moves and counter moves - both soft and hard.

I myself use a combination of traditional and non-traditional methods. Not just data. This is how I predicted a 9/11 event a year in advance and the huge fall in the stock market.

Sorry for the rambling... I do love this area. It is soooooo much fun. :-)

Cheers;
DrD

[lusus]

I myself use a combination of traditional and non-traditional methods. Not just data. This is how I predicted a 9/11 event a year in advance and the huge fall in the stock market.

DrD

I predict you can't accurately post a meaningful prediction like the aforementioned examples so that anyone can actually benefit from it. I'd love to be proved wrong.

By the way, how much did you make shorting the market?

[Rangertab1]

I predict you can't accurately post a meaningful prediction like the aforementioned examples so that anyone can actually benefit from it. I'd love to be proved wrong.

By the way, how much did you make shorting the market?

I hate spreadsheets and powerpoints and formulas.......even when I was a Captain.

[DrD]

Ranger Iusus;

Nothing at all. Short based on attack on the USA? I don't short on predictions like that. Somehow, I doubt you would either.

As for proving you wrong... with deepest respect, no. That would require telling you 1) future predictions so that you can determine whether they are valid, or 2) telling you how it is done so you can determine its feasibility. With respect, I don't know you well enough for either.

I am sorry. I am sure this is not the convincing answer you were asking for. I am more sorry in telling a colleague of Ranger Shark's that I do not know them well enough to answer their question. I will trust that you understand why I don't wish to.

DrD

[Caruthers]

Ranger Iusus;

Nothing at all. Short based on attack on the USA? I don't short on predictions like that. Somehow, I doubt you would either.

As for proving you wrong... with deepest respect, no. That would require telling you 1) future predictions so that you can determine whether they are valid, or 2) telling you how it is done so you can determine its feasibility. With respect, I don't know you well enough for either.

I am sorry. I am sure this is not the convincing answer you were asking for. I am more sorry in telling a colleague of Ranger Shark's that I do not know them well enough to answer their question. I will trust that you understand why I don't wish to.

DrD

Damn girl, you will have to type slower.............I can't keep up.

[Caruthers]

Ranger Iusus;

Nothing at all. Short based on attack on the USA? I don't short on predictions like that. Somehow, I doubt you would either.

As for proving you wrong... with deepest respect, no. That would require telling you 1) future predictions so that you can determine whether they are valid, or 2) telling you how it is done so you can determine its feasibility. With respect, I don't know you well enough for either.

I am sorry. I am sure this is not the convincing answer you were asking for. I am more sorry in telling a colleague of Ranger Shark's that I do not know them well enough to answer their question. I will trust that you understand why I don't wish to.

DrD

http://salaswildthoughts.blogspot.com/2 ... tions.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And explains how it works .......... kinda

[Caruthers]

Not the best place to post this. Maybe the mods. can open a "technical" part to post items like this.

For those who are not afraid of Maths or statistics, here is a interesting video on the "predictability" of war.

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Long time no hear Joshua.

I would, like the comments on Youtube, like to understand the filters that were used. Numbers are scary to me. I can make them tell me I am 6'2 230 lbs of man child or it could be 74" inches and 230 lbs of meat shield. Depends on what you want them to say. If I want a answer, I have to build a question without bias. A difficult thing to do when filtering information and data. What I think is a lessor might not be.
None the less. It cooked a few of the older gray spots in my head. A thought provoking little film.


Stay safe and a tight group.

[lusus]

Ranger Iusus;

Nothing at all. Short based on attack on the USA? I don't short on predictions like that. Somehow, I doubt you would either.

Maybe I misunderstood. Are you saying you predicted a 9/11-type event a year in advance and the resulting stock market decline (essentially one concurrent event) or are you saying you predicted two events, 9/11 and the current market situation?

In the former, calling the stock market decline following a terrorist attack is not a resume builder. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say that the next terrorist attack on US soil will cause a market decline of greater than 10% when the market reopens. You heard it here first!

In the latter case, I hope you would short the market. Money itself is morally neutral, and shorting is not unethical. If you could predict that and not short against it your conviction level doesn't seem too high.

That would require telling you 1) future predictions so that you can determine whether they are valid, or 2) telling you how it is done so you can determine its feasibility.

We are in agreement that if I am to take your ex post facto claims of success seriously you would have to indeed tell me a future prediction so we could see if it comes true. That is, it seems, the point of predictions. And don't worry about point 2, if you nail it I'll assume your black box magical predictor machine works.

I am sorry. I am sure this is not the convincing answer you were asking for.

Not what I was asking for, but not unexpected. (I predicted as much!) :D

I will trust that you understand why I don't wish to.
DrD

I'm pretty sure I get it. Predictin' is hard work, fraught with error and easy to criticize. Like the Joker said, if you're good at something never do it for free. But as such, you can see why saying after the fact that you nailed future events, and then not backing it up with further predictions could cause some to consider you a prediction poser. :D

[Joshua]

Yes I know you can “look outside the window” to understand the type of warfare the enemy army is conducting.

I am a big fan of battlefield experience that lead to adjustment of tactics. So often army's learn lessons on the battlefield and do not adjust their tactics to compensate for shortcomings. There also tend to be a problem of the transfer of battlefield experience between units say the Marines and the Army.

The more experienced the unit and its commanders , the more accurate can they read the "game" and do adjustments accordingly. This model as suggested in the video can never replace that. What it does imply is that it can confirm and to a lesser account predict trends on the behavior of enemy troops based on input data.

So DrD, here is the challenge. Develop a model that can incorporate battlefield experience with statistics

[Silverback]

I predict that someone will highjack this thread!

[DrD]

Ranger

In the latter case, I hope you would short the market. Money itself is morally neutral, and shorting is not unethical. If you could predict that and not short against it your conviction level doesn't seem too high.

I'm pretty sure I get it. Predictin' is hard work, fraught with error and easy to criticize. Like the Joker said, if you're good at something never do it for free. But as such, you can see why saying after the fact that you nailed future events, and then not backing it up with further predictions could cause some to consider you a prediction poser. :D

Ranger Iusus;

Perhaps I do not have a high enough conviction level... somehow, it just seems slimey to short based on negative predictions of that magnitude. And yes, I know that it could indeed make me look like a poser. I am not sure what I want to do about that right now. Or if I will do anything on an open forum. :?

So DrD, here is the challenge. Develop a model that can incorporate battlefield experience with statistics

:D I am in. Get me data, access to people with battlefield experience, as much on the battle realism as you can give me so that I understand as much as possible and I am totally there. I will get more specific on pm if you do want to run with it.

But, as a caveat to that... gut instinct cannot be put into a model. :D

DrD